I’d love to hear your thoughts on whether you believe a trump presidency would be better or worse for Muslims and the world at large than a Harris presidency?
I think it's pretty clear that Gaza played a role, but was not a conditio-sine-qua-non for Trump's victory. All other theses lack facts and we can all agree on this statement while saving face.
What I find absolutely sad is that Muslims voted for Trump. Punishing Democrats was probably a moral duty, but anger and hatred should not blind people.
I don't find it anymore sad than Muslims voting for Harris. I am quite jaded politically so such a stance is almost my default position, but then again I realize that people are often drawn to the allure of one of the two regnant parties saving us, especially in moments of despair.
Prediction markets can be more accurate than public polls
In 2018 and 2020, Crane published two peer-reviewed studies in which he compared the forecasting accuracy of the prediction market platform PredictIt against the poll data aggregator FiveThirtyEight from statistician Nate Silver.
In both cases, the research concluded that the betting prediction market was more accurate than Silver’s forecast across presidential, Senate, House and governor races.
“Sentiment is what polls measure, accuracy and truth are what markets seek to measure.”
Crane highlighted the key difference between polls and prediction markets: Polls ask people who they want to win, and markets ask people who they think will win through an economic incentive model, which rewards them for accurate analysis.
He stressed that traders don’t care about which candidate other people want to win; they care about who will win, making markets more accurate.
Jazakum Allah Khayran, brother. The quote below is the most telling for me.
"As a matter of realpolitik, it makes little sense to own your political irrelevance in the public square and cower away into a corner reveling in how little you matter. It makes even less sense when the winning presidential candidate has spent the better part of two weeks courting your vote and pandering in some measure to your concerns. It makes even less sense yet again when pluralities — including conservative groups — agree with at least some of what you’re fighting for."
Perhaps, brother, you could discuss how the Muslim community can move past the garden-variety liberal problem that we seem to have (and, apparently, have had for some time). Do you think now more than ever, the Muslim community has been presented with the most damning evidence that the Democrats, as a political wing, never really cared about us, nor respected our religious beliefs? I personally have never found myself comfortable around the progressive types (think Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez) either, owing to their general disdain toward religion (and general promotion of sexual promiscuity, abortion, gay and transgender agendas) that tends to follow their disillusionment with Christianity. It seems to me that at best, we represented an ally of convenience to the liberal Left and at worst, we were yet another non-Christian non-White minority that they needed to pay lip service to so that they can maintain the appearance of following the playbook principle of being pro-minorities.
I am not a follower of your podcast (will be rectifying that soon), so I cannot tell if you have covered this topic before, but it seems to me like we are now presented with a rare opportunity to help our progressive Muslim brothers and sisters see through the veil of the "blue/woke" pill and anchor their political beliefs in Islam first and foremost as opposed to the liberal playbook.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on whether you believe a trump presidency would be better or worse for Muslims and the world at large than a Harris presidency?
Should be doing a podcast on this soon inshallah.
Excellent, jazakumullahu Khayran
Thank you for writing! This was insightful for me.
I think it's pretty clear that Gaza played a role, but was not a conditio-sine-qua-non for Trump's victory. All other theses lack facts and we can all agree on this statement while saving face.
What I find absolutely sad is that Muslims voted for Trump. Punishing Democrats was probably a moral duty, but anger and hatred should not blind people.
I don't find it anymore sad than Muslims voting for Harris. I am quite jaded politically so such a stance is almost my default position, but then again I realize that people are often drawn to the allure of one of the two regnant parties saving us, especially in moments of despair.
Interesting thoughts about the gambling sites in being more accurate than polls. Has a good point...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/prediction-markets-polymarket-polls
--------------------------
Prediction markets can be more accurate than public polls
In 2018 and 2020, Crane published two peer-reviewed studies in which he compared the forecasting accuracy of the prediction market platform PredictIt against the poll data aggregator FiveThirtyEight from statistician Nate Silver.
In both cases, the research concluded that the betting prediction market was more accurate than Silver’s forecast across presidential, Senate, House and governor races.
“Sentiment is what polls measure, accuracy and truth are what markets seek to measure.”
Crane highlighted the key difference between polls and prediction markets: Polls ask people who they want to win, and markets ask people who they think will win through an economic incentive model, which rewards them for accurate analysis.
He stressed that traders don’t care about which candidate other people want to win; they care about who will win, making markets more accurate.
Great point on exit-polling which I had not considered. I think we all should learn that election polls have increasingly become irrelevant.
Jazakum Allah Khayran, brother. The quote below is the most telling for me.
"As a matter of realpolitik, it makes little sense to own your political irrelevance in the public square and cower away into a corner reveling in how little you matter. It makes even less sense when the winning presidential candidate has spent the better part of two weeks courting your vote and pandering in some measure to your concerns. It makes even less sense yet again when pluralities — including conservative groups — agree with at least some of what you’re fighting for."
Perhaps, brother, you could discuss how the Muslim community can move past the garden-variety liberal problem that we seem to have (and, apparently, have had for some time). Do you think now more than ever, the Muslim community has been presented with the most damning evidence that the Democrats, as a political wing, never really cared about us, nor respected our religious beliefs? I personally have never found myself comfortable around the progressive types (think Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez) either, owing to their general disdain toward religion (and general promotion of sexual promiscuity, abortion, gay and transgender agendas) that tends to follow their disillusionment with Christianity. It seems to me that at best, we represented an ally of convenience to the liberal Left and at worst, we were yet another non-Christian non-White minority that they needed to pay lip service to so that they can maintain the appearance of following the playbook principle of being pro-minorities.
I am not a follower of your podcast (will be rectifying that soon), so I cannot tell if you have covered this topic before, but it seems to me like we are now presented with a rare opportunity to help our progressive Muslim brothers and sisters see through the veil of the "blue/woke" pill and anchor their political beliefs in Islam first and foremost as opposed to the liberal playbook.