November 5th Predictions

Some guesses on how things will play out next week

Photo by Phil Hearing at Unsplash

So how will it all go down?

Before I get to that, a few disclaimers. Political forecasting is, well, a crapshoot, to put it mildly. And confident predictions invariably age poorly. Not because people are malinformed (or underinformed), but because you can never adequately account for the unexpected – and in the real world, there are far too many “unexpecteds” that disrupt straightforward judgments.

Nevertheless, and against my better judgment, I’m going to spend some time here forecasting what I think will happen. Mind you, what I think will happen is not the same as what I hope will happen. Having offered enough prefatory disclaimers, here goes nothing:

First things first: Trump wins. Call it a “feeling” or, if you’re Nate Silver, a “gut call.” Both candidates have failed to motivate their bases. Trump has shown his age as of late, looking more octogenarian than his typically spry self in recent weeks. Harris, on the other hand, stumbles through speeches, struggles to coherently answer softballs, and continues to be hampered by bitterness stemming from Biden forcibly stepping down. Very few partisans seem to feel passionately in favor of their candidate as much as they absolutely detest the opponent. Not a great position for any voter to be in.

Then why Trump? Well, a few reasons. One, he’ll benefit from having actually been president before. Whether he was a good president or not is beside the point. The relevant question is whether Harris benefits from being viewed as an incumbent or Trump does. My guess is Trump benefits from an incumbent bump more than Harris largely because Harris has been absent these last four years. Most VPs get little airtime and media coverage, but even by reclusive VP standards she’s been conspicuously out of commission for years, sidelined by an administration that didn’t seem to care much for her contributions or perhaps didn’t view her as an asset worth leveraging for public politics.

I also think that, out of the two, Trump has a more devoted base. Some subset of Trump’s base views him to be a politician greater than any other. The manner in which they speak about him reflects a quasi deification. MJT recently compared him to Christ for being a convicted felon. Meanwhile, #KHive is fan fiction artificially propped up by Dem politicos to promote the specter of popular and enthusiastic support for Harris when little actually exists.

Trump also tends to do well in swing states. He outperformed expectations in the last two elections. And had it not been for a number of factors coming together on the eve of the last election (covid, no coverage of Hunter Biden laptop story, removal of Trump from social media platforms, etc.) we’d probably be under a second Trump term right now.

Finally, I think Trump will capture more of the minority vote than people expect. Latinos, blacks, Muslims, and others will vote for Trump in greater numbers than expected. I predict this will coincide with a greater number of wealthy white male voters casting their ballots for Harris. But in the end, Trump edges it out – just a hunch.

Second question: how will Muslims vote? Here’s a ballpark guess: 50% Harris, 35% Trump, 15% Stein. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Harris number ended up slightly higher alongside a slightly lower number for Stein. But when it’s all said and done, I think this will closely resemble where our community votes fall, which will suggest a few things:

• Our community is more politically divided than most have been willing to countenance. How we handle that political diversity will be a matter of great dispute and remain a precarious factor in our community programs (and social media deliberations) going forward.

• The numbers will represent a significant gain for Trump in Muslim support, and indicate a growing Republican Muslim coalition, motivated by various concerns: big government, LGBT, Dem intransigence, high taxes, or some other political grievance.

• The Stein movement/Green Party vs. Dems will be with us for the next four years, with the former accusing the latter of being sell-outs, shills for the establishment, and uncaring about oppression. The latter, on the other hand, will accuse the former of possessing political naivete, hurting the community by emboldening “literal fascists” willing to dispense with our democracy, and being useful idiots for those who hate us. If Harris wins, I expect the infighting between these two groups to be especially bad.

Third question: what will this mean for how Muslim votes are perceived?

• If I’m right about Trump winning, then the Abandon Harris movement will be credited with driving the loss. This will be for a few reasons:

  • It’s a convenient excuse for the Dems who are averse to accepting responsibility and viewing their losses as stemming from policy, candidate, or campaign failures

  • It will play into the GOP narrative that the left has lost control of its “extreme” fringe and thus enable right wing antagonists to smear the left as out of touch and radical

  • The Abandon Harris camp will take credit for the loss to drive home the point that Palestine is politically consequential and Zionism can be made a political liability

  In short, each group is incentivized to blame Abandon Harris for the loss, which will simultaneously give the movement some positive and lots of negative attention.

• If, however, I’m wrong about Trump winning, I don’t think much will change at all. Democrats will reward their Muslim loyalists with positions in a Harris administration. I expect a Harris victory would be something close to a death knell for Trumpism and the Abandon movement. Though not exactly a death knell, the America First movement will suffer a major black eye which they will blame on Trump’s unwillingness to embrace Project 2025.

Fourth question: what does this mean for Palestine? I’m not sure. It is quite possible that in the next year we’ll see Gaza formally annexed. North Gaza at a minimum. A return to 10/7 borders for the Gazans would be a huge win, but Israel isn’t about to concede that territory and there isn’t a powerful political actor on earth willing to stop them. My guess is that this eventuality will come with either Harris or Trump, and that Trump will merely “rip off the bandaid” and arrive at it faster than Harris.

With Trump, there are some paradoxical opportunities. As Aaron Mate has observed, Trump puts an ugly face on American imperialism which is why he is reviled by much of the establishment. Accordingly, he inspires a great deal of outrage, both domestically and abroad. How that all shakes out and what it means for countries around the world remains to be seen.

Final thoughts: It is my hope that Muslims use this moment to galvanize and organize themselves going forward. As Rudi Dutschke once put it, the march through the institutions is a long one, and Muslims have much work to do. Entrepreneurship needs to be cultivated and encouraged. Ethical wealth building and the effective use of that wealth to help our community domestically and abroad requires foresight and strategy. Contributing to the crafting of technologies, art, and culture can no longer be set aside as trivial hobbies for a select few. We need to tell our own stories, which requires resources, time, and diligence.

I have been heartened by the political disputes in recent weeks. Though there has been much casting of aspersions, there has also been a real recognition that we can’t just leave our values at the door when we make political judgments. Voting is not a morally neutral act, and where we stand on consequential policies should be informed by coherent ethical deliberations, not impulsive adherence to partisan tribes.

Finally, it is my hope that ummatic sentiment stays with us going forward. We are many in the world and just happen to find ourselves living in a moment of political weakness. We have brethren around the world who are suffering under the boot of oppression, and they are owed our concern as well as our activism and support in whatever capacity we can. We ask Allah to help us take up that task and live up to our calling. Ameen.

Allah Knows Best.